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Gaming & Leisure Properties, Inc. (GLPI)·Q3 2025 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • Record Q3 results: Total revenue $397.6M (+3.2% YoY), Adjusted EBITDA $366.4M (+5.8%), AFFO $282.0M (+5.1%); diluted EPS $0.85, FFO/share $1.08, AFFO/share $0.97 .
  • Guidance raised marginally: FY25 AFFO to $1.115–$1.118B and $3.86–$3.88/share vs prior $1.112–$1.118B and $3.85–$3.87/share; expected Q4 development funding reduced to ~$280M (from ~$338M) due to timing shifts in Chicago; dividend held at $0.78 .
  • Capital deployment and funding pipeline: $363.3M of forward equity executed; $1.3B bonds issued; leverage ~4.4x with capacity to fund commitments with debt and stay ~5.1x; tenant rent coverages remain strong (1.69x–2.78x) .
  • Strategic catalysts: tribal financing partnership (Caesars Republic Sonoma County, $225M at blended ~12.79%), Cordish Live! Virginia ($467M at 8% cap), Sunland Park acquisition ($183.75M at 8.2% cap), and ongoing Chicago progress; these support multi-year AFFO growth and tenant diversification .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

  • Record quarterly revenue, AFFO, and Adjusted EBITDA driven by acquisitions, financing arrangements, escalators, and percentage rent resets, underscoring resilient cash flows and dividend support .
  • CEO emphasized accretive deal flow: “we have announced three transactions…deploy $875 million of capital at a blended cap rate of 9.3%,” adding >5% to annualized cash rent when completed .
  • Balance sheet optionality: forward equity ($363.3M) and $1.3B bonds raised, leverage ~4.4x; CFO noted the ability to fund the pipeline entirely with debt and remain at ~5.1x leverage .

What Went Wrong

  • Q4 development funding cadence revised down by ~$25M (from $338M to $280M) due to timing/administrative “papering” of Chicago draws; CFO flagged schedule shifts into 2026–2027 .
  • Revenue slightly below consensus for Q3 (actual $397.6M vs ~$399.4M estimate)*; though EPS and FFO/share beat, the minor top-line shortfall reflects timing and non-cash revenue adjustments .
  • Credit-loss provision swing: operating expenses benefited this quarter from a non-cash provision reversal vs prior-year charge, highlighting continued macro-model sensitivity in reported GAAP opex .

Financial Results

Consolidated metrics vs prior quarters

MetricQ1 2025Q2 2025Q3 2025
Total Revenue ($USD Millions)$395.2 $394.9 $397.6
Adjusted EBITDA ($USD Millions)$360.1 $361.5 $366.4
AFFO ($USD Millions)$272.0 $276.1 $282.0
Diluted EPS ($USD)$0.60 $0.54 $0.85
FFO/share (diluted) ($USD)$0.83 $0.79 $1.08
AFFO/share (diluted) ($USD)$0.96 $0.96 $0.97
Cash NOI ($USD Millions)$370.0 $371.2 $375.0
Quarterly Dividend ($USD/share)$0.76 $0.76 $0.78

Estimates vs actuals (S&P Global consensus)

MetricQ1 2025Q2 2025Q3 2025
Revenue Consensus Mean ($USD Millions)$396.91*$397.98*$399.42*
Revenue Actual ($USD Millions)$395.24 $394.88 $397.61
Primary EPS Consensus Mean ($USD)$0.740*$0.751*$0.747*
Primary EPS Actual ($USD)$0.60 $0.54 $0.85
FFO/share Consensus Mean ($USD)$0.970*$0.968*$0.959*
FFO/share Actual ($USD)$0.83 $0.79 $1.08

Values with an asterisk are retrieved from S&P Global.

EBITDA Margin %

MetricQ1 2025Q2 2025Q3 2025
EBITDA Margin %82.8%*83.1%*83.8%*

Values retrieved from S&P Global.

Segment/Lease cash income (Q3 2025)

Lease/SegmentTotal Cash Income ($USD Thousands)
Amended PENN Master Lease$71,412
PENN 2023 Master Lease$61,546
Amended Pinnacle Master Lease$87,418
Caesars Master Lease$22,234
Horseshoe St. Louis Lease$5,991
Boyd Master Lease$26,872
Bally’s Master Lease$26,939
Bally’s Master Lease II$15,265
Cordish – Maryland Live! Lease$19,412
Cordish – Pennsylvania Live! Master$12,942
Casino Queen Master Lease$2,301
Tropicana Las Vegas Lease$3,768
Rockford Lease$2,054
Tioga Downs Lease$3,694
Strategic Gaming Leases$2,299
Ione Loan$955
Bally’s Chicago Lease$5,000

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent GuidanceChange
AFFO ($USD Billions)FY 2025$1.112–$1.118 $1.115–$1.118 Raised (midpoint +$0.001B)
AFFO/share ($USD)FY 2025$3.85–$3.87 $3.86–$3.88 Raised (range +$0.01)
Development Funding (Q4 draw)2H 2025~$338M expected ~$280M expected Lowered (timing)
M Resort Tower fundingQ4 2025Included $150M funding anticipated Maintained
Dividend/shareQ3 2025$0.78 declared $0.78 paid Maintained

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

TopicPrevious Mentions (Q1 & Q2)Current Period (Q3)Trend
Funding & LeveragePrefunding via forwards; leverage ~4.7x; optionality to use ATM, hedges; goal to stay ≤5.5x Can fund pipeline solely with debt, remain ~5.1x; leverage ~4.4x post raises Improving flexibility
Bally’s Chicago progressCaissons/steel ordered; development agreement finalized; draws lag work; cap rates unchanged (8% land, 8.5% improvements) Construction “gone vertical”; first tranche funded in Oct.; Q4 funding cadence reduced ~$25M timing Executing, timing shifts
Tribal gaming pipelineActive outreach; Ione GMP; seeking first-of-its-kind financing, NIGC approvals gate timing Caesars Republic Sonoma County deal ($225M at ~12.79% blended); more inbound interest, underwriting seeks higher coverage Accelerating
NY downstate casinosROFR with Bally’s; highly confident letters; will participate prudently; 15-year license viewed manageable Appetite remains, upfront coverage must be “massively” >2x; 3 bidders remain; cautious on financing scale Selective, de-risked
Las Vegas A’s/Tropicana siteCommitted $175M (remaining $125M) for site elements; explore optional participation in resort Continued planning; potential to invest more if terms attractive; not sole funder Steady progress
iGaming/regulation & tariffsMonitoring iGaming expansion; prefer bricks-linked licenses; CRE macro/tariffs impacted credit-loss modeling Q3 provision benefit drove opex; stance against unlinked iGaming; debt cost ~5.6% with 10yr ~4.1% Policy vigilance
Tenant rent coverageStrong master lease coverage; Pinnacle dip earlier due to competition Coverage ranges 1.69x–2.78x; 97% cash rent tenants >1.8x per CEO Stable/Strong

Management Commentary

  • “We have announced three transactions…deploy $875 million of capital at a blended cap rate of 9.3%,” adding >5% to annualized cash rent once completed .
  • “We can fund the entirety of our future commitments solely with debt financing and still remain at approximately 5.1x leverage…this path appears to be most appealing” .
  • CFO: “Our operating expenses decreased $53.5 million, mainly resulting from non-cash adjustments in the provision for credit losses…We increased full-year 2025 AFFO guidance to $3.86–$3.88” .
  • CEO: rent coverages remain strong; diversified tenants and innovative structures underpin record revenue, AFFO, Adjusted EBITDA .
  • On Chicago: “progress…significant…the pace of construction has picked up dramatically…we’ve gone vertical” .

Q&A Highlights

  • Leverage and funding mix: Comfortable letting leverage tick up near-term; funding entirely via debt would still be ~5.1x once annualized; equity issuance not attractive at current valuation .
  • Chicago cadence: Q4 development funding reduced by ~$25M and pushed to 2026; timing-related “papering” caused first advance delay; expect regular flow of capital going forward .
  • Bally’s Lincoln option extension: Dates moved to late 2028; alleviates pressure; GLPI gets better market visibility; terms unchanged and could be exercised earlier with lender consents .
  • Tribal pipeline: Increasing inbound interest; underwriting seeks higher coverage vs commercial deals; Caesars Republic Sonoma County financing closed .
  • Debt cost backdrop: 10-year Treasury ~4.1% implying ~5.6% 10yr issuance; spreads steady; equity cost is the binding constraint .

Estimates Context

  • Q3 EPS beat: Primary EPS actual $0.85 vs ~$0.747 estimate (significant beat)*, aided by non-cash credit-loss provision benefit and strong cash rents .
  • Q3 FFO/share beat: $1.08 vs ~$0.959 estimate (clear beat)* reflecting escalators, acquisitions, and development rent accrual mechanics in AFFO/FFO .
  • Q3 revenue slightly missed: $397.6M actual vs ~$399.4M estimate (modest miss)*; management emphasized timing effects and non-cash revenue adjustments .

Values with an asterisk are retrieved from S&P Global.

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • Operating momentum intact: Record Q3 and raised FY25 AFFO guidance signal durable rent growth and dividend support; expect multi-year AFFO accretion from Chicago, Cordish Virginia, Sunland Park, and tribal financing .
  • Funding flexibility is a differentiator: With leverage ~4.4x and capacity to fund commitments via debt while staying ~5.1x, GLPI can avoid dilutive equity until conditions improve .
  • Bally’s exposure de-risked at asset level: GLPI underwrites four-wall coverage and structures (8–8.5% cap) to keep assets attractive to alternative operators if needed; Chicago progress and added corporate guarantee mechanics are positives .
  • Pipeline diversity broadens tenant/market footprint: Tribal and Cordish partnerships, plus PENN relocations (Aurora/Joliet) and M Resort hotel tower, support rent growth and coverage metrics .
  • Watch Q4/Q1 cadence: Expect Chicago draws and project funding timing to drive quarterly AFFO variability; FY guide incorporates ~$280M Q4 funding and $150M M Resort tower .
  • Macro reporting noise: Non-cash credit-loss provisions can swing GAAP opex; focus on cash metrics (Cash NOI, AFFO) for core performance .
  • Near-term trading lens: EPS/FFO beats vs consensus, guidance uptick, and visible project milestones are supportive; modest revenue miss likely a valuation-neutral timing issue .
Notes:  
- All non-GAAP metrics per GLPI definitions; AFFO excludes straight-line rent and other non-cash items **[1575965_0001575965-25-000049_glpi-2025930ex991.htm:19]** **[1575965_0001575965-25-000049_glpi-2025930ex991.htm:20]**.  
- Values marked with an asterisk (*) are retrieved from S&P Global.